Tuesday 25 March 2014

An OTT voice & SMS look at my Fixed & Mobile broadband tariff plans

I use Airtel India Services for both fixed and mobile broadband. Here are my tariff plan details:

Type Data Limit (FUP) Max. Speed Speed after FUP
(Unlimited Data)
Price
Fixed Broadband (ADSL) 30 GB 2 Mbps 512 Kbps Rs. 1149/-
Mobile Broadband (4G LTE) 3 GB 40 Mbps 128 Kbps Rs. 650/-

These are the cheapest unlimited plans I could get from Airtel (and because of the FUP limits, nothing is really unlimited). 

The MBB connection serves my Wifi+3G enabled tablet (iPad Air) while the FBB connection serves my computers, Tablets and smartphones (also my wife's) at my residence. I was curious to know how these connections would fair if I start using them for voice calls. Now Skype and Viber are presently the two most popular VoIP applications and are available on PC and Mobile Platforms. 

According to Skype support, Skype-Skype voice call needs a bandwidth of 50 KBps or  3 MB/minute, giving me unlimited minutes on both my fixed & broadband plans. And is independent of whom & physical distance between the calling & called parties as long as both of them use Skype. Conservatively, if we consider only till FUP limits (and we should as 50 KBps = 400 Kbps is more than the post FUP speed in MBB but less than psot FUP speed in FBB), its 10,000 minutes (166.67 hours) approximately on FBB and 1000 minutes (16.67 hours) on MBB, befor On top of this there is presence data exchanged which does not have hard real time constraints and would depend on the number of contacts.

Similarly, Viber reports that for Viber-Viber VoIP calls, 0.5 MB/minute (or just 8.33 KBps = 67 Kbps) is used (call quality is typically inferior to Skype but still tolerable in most cases). This would give me almost 6 times the hours I can get with skype before my FUP is reached. And post FUP usage limit, I would be more confident of using Viber as bandwidth demand is less than post FUP speed in both FBB and MBB plans.

Independent analysis from Voip bandwidth calculator gives us a figure of 0.75 MB/minute (= 100 Kbps) for any generic VoIP client conversation based on G.729 codec.

If we compare this with Carrier voice plans, the best we can get is 1083 min free + 0.6p/sec (not pulse) for local & pan India (STD) traffic by paying a Rs. 400 rental. It means that if I transfer 10,000 minutes from Skype (best call quality VOIP Client) to carrier voice (assuming its all within India), then I need to pay Rs. 3710/- per month to the carrier. Ofcourse I can be assured of reliability, QoS & QoE. Its just that the cost would be 3-6 times cheaper if I use VoIP Fixed or Mobile broadband networks.

I am not taking OTT Messaging for any comparison as its bandwidth usage is practically negligible and the features (rich messaging compared to text messaging) are way better than SMS. This debate is already settled and OTT Messaging has won over SMS. Period. Only point (2) below is holding it from completely decimating SMS as has occurred in developed markets.

So why has OTT voice not replaced Carrier voice completely in India as of today ? There could be one or a combination of reasons:

(1) Insufficient spread & spotty 3G & 4G mobile broadband coverage. Limited to only Metropolitan and Tier-I cities
(2) Relatively small smartphone penetration. Only 67 million smartphones against a total mobile subscriber base of 900 million. If we don't have a modern smartphone OS, then we don't have access to VoIP and other OTT applications.
(3) An incumbent business system depending on directories and contact lists which only carry carrier voice numbers (A problem solved by Whatsapp & Viber).
(4) Lack of awareness among subscribers about feasibility of VoIP replacing carrier voice and still low penetration levels of smartphones (now only 7.5-8% of mobile subscribers)
(5) Crony capitalism @ work from Service providers which influences the government's regulatory policy in their favour (avoid loss of bread-and-butter voice revenues) by restricting MBB /FBB growth
(6) very inconsistent latency in Wireless networks upsetting the buffering algorithms of VoIP clients and causing severe QoS/QoE issues with OTT VoIP services
(7) Something else which I am not aware of ...

Whatever be the case we can surely hope that the situation will turn around in the next 4-5 years and we will see OTT voice go mainstream in India. In atleast metros and Tier-I cities, there is early infrastructure. The focus should be to further democratize the smartphone and increase the smartphone users. If that happens demands will skyrocket (It is already estimated that India will have 200 million smartphone based subscribers by 2015) automatically. Low cost Chinese Manufacturers (including Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, Oppo, etc) as well as Indian OEMs like Lava, Micromax, etc can play a key role in this. But if operators really want to expedite the usage of their mobile broadband offerings, they need to possibly sell subsidized smartphones to subscribers and recover the subsidy in a 1-2 year timeframe (even if it means locking handset to the operator). Quite akin to the way US carrier operate. Our urban areas deserve to be on par with the developed west & SK/Japan/Singapore/HK in terms of mobile infrastructure. Are the NaMo's and RaGa's listening ?

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